Munich (September 23, 2022). Economic worries are likely to dampen the mood at Europe's largest trade fair for real estate and investment in Munich. This was the result of a survey conducted by Messe München among participants in the run-up to Expo Real (4-6 October).
Due to the upheavals in the wake of the Ukraine war, the real estate industry is particularly preoccupied with price increases and inflation as well as interest rate policy. Climate protection is in third place when it comes to the most important influencing factors and challenges.
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| Subdued market sentiment in the July survey meets much need for exchange this year at Expo Real. / Photo: Messe Muenchen |
This was the result of an online survey conducted by the market research institute IfaD on behalf of Expo Real in July among 493 German participants (also see attached pdf). "Considering the current general conditions, the real estate industry is entering the fall with subdued expectations for the real estate market. Just under half of the respondents to the Expo Real Trend Index believe that investments in German real estate will decrease, a quarter expect it to remain at the same level at most. The need to discuss the challenges is correspondingly high", says Stefan Rummel, CEO of Messe München.
This is also shown by the strong participation of around 1,900 exhibitors at the fair - almost 60% more than last year and almost at pre-Corona level.
ECB's interest rate policy mainly considered positive
Almost half of those surveyed (48%) believe that the amounts of money invested in German real estate will decrease, whereas 26% each expect them to remain the same or increase. Most respondents gave a positive assessment of the interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank: 61% think that the central bank is thus ending the real estate boom, and 67% assume that real estate financing will now become more realistic.
Another major challenge for large parts of the real estate industry are the ESG (environmental, social, governance) requirements, not only for fund products. Nearly a quarter of respondents are still unclear about this. However, 43% consider ESG criteria to be the approach to take.
From affordable housing to climate-resilient cities: the survey reveals that sustainable urban development can only be accomplished if politics and business join forces. In terms of climate protection in cities, the respondents from the real estate industry are primarily focusing on better public infrastructure and generally ecological urban development. 65% call for more commitment on the part of the public sector to develop infrastructure in the cities. Half are convinced that private/public partnership models will regain importance.
High importance of care and residential properties
In the survey, care and residential properties are rated as the types of property with the highest increase in importance (69 and 68% respectively). The segments of healthcare (54%), logistics (also 54%) and mixed-use property (53%) take 3rd, 4th and 5th place. Looking at the office segment, two thirds of respondents predict strong growth for the co-working trend in the future as well. In the retail sector, specialty stores enjoy a high level of popularity (69%), well ahead of street stores (46%), shopping centers (23%) or factory outlets (15%).
In the residential property segment, senior housing (82%) and subsidized housing / social housing (80%) are at the very top of the rankings. Those investing in residential, office and/or mixed-use properties remain true to their respective investment strategies: 89% say they do not plan to shift between the segments. According to the survey, the most coveted locations for residential and office properties are primarily B and C locations in the catchment area of major cities. / red
| Expo Real Sept 2022_Trend Index EN | |
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